On August 7th on the Swiss ProfilInvest Web site, visitors could read the French article "Twilight over the markets": 

Today, August 29th, it seems that we have begun the consolidation :

Stocks slumped around the world and havens including gold jumped after North Korea fired a ballistic missile over Japan, rattling markets from New York to London to Sydney. Gasoline climbed as energy companies braced for another hit from Tropical Storm Harvey.

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Above you will find the graph of Sotheby's shares compared to the S&P 500 indice. 

What do you see?

1. Sotheby's share price makes long-term cycles. These cycles depends on auctions sales and profits reflecting the most wealthy clients' will to save a part of their fortune through the purchase of art works.

2. The overextension of Sotheby's share price compared to the S&P 500 indice tends to validate an end-of-cycle or a correction in stock markets (1999 and then 2007, 2011, and 2013).

3. During the last move from 2016 to 2017, Sotheby's share price has risen strongly but has not shown a speculative extension of its rise versus its indice yet. Then, it seems that the upside phase might continue a couple of months, though it might become more speculative. And we cannot exclude a short-term correction.

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Written by Jean-Pierre Riepe on July 27th, 2017 

Sometimes a picture shows much more than 1000 words.

What can we conclude ?

• either commodities are undervalued
• either shares are overpriced
• or both have reached extremes and should reduce the gap  to reach the median line.

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